With brands set to spend an unprecedented $39 billion on influencer marketing in 2025, up 10% are adopting a social-first approach to marketing. Yet, as the axis of marketing strategy shifts to reflect socially driven consumer culture, attribution for these efforts remains a sticking point for the industry at large
By design, attribution models built for traditional marketing tactics will fail to capture the impact of social-first marketing efforts. Meanwhile, complex social-first attribution models that capture the fast-paced and emotional nature of social media success are a pain point that many brands lack the scope to solve. Social media has forever changed the consumer journey — but when do brands truly start to see ROI from social media efforts? And what’s the gap that causes savvy brands to stumble when it comes to social attribution?
The key is understanding the balance of long-term and short-term ROI through the lens of social media. Here, we’ll leverage the expert insights of Viral Nation’s business intelligence and community management teams to define social-first attribution and unpack what truly drives sales from social media marketing efforts.
The Problem with Traditional Attribution
Different metrics — likes, shares, comments, clicks — tell different stories. The first problem is connecting that behavioral storytelling to a bottom line. For example, what do 3 million impressions mean for that sponsored post’s success in an influencer marketing campaign? “An influencer partnership may see high engagement, but when brands lack clear evidence of how engagement links to sales, these behavioral metrics are often dismissed in favor of clarity,” explains Viral Nation’s VP of Strategy & Community, Madison Gaudry-Routledge.
What’s clearer is simple: paid ads on social media are easy to track, and create a measurable throughline from effort to ROI. The issue here is that looking at social media as another platform for ads limits its potential for impact. It means that when we’re talking about ROI, we’re looking at attribution from a very narrow, “social-too” view of social media marketing. By focusing on the clarity provided by paid performance marketing, brands limit their social media presence. This not only weakens the effectiveness of their paid efforts but also misses out on opportunities for long-term ROI, which drive greater and more sustainable growth over a longer period.
In essence, the challenge isn’t just understanding attribution, it’s understanding how to balance both organic and paid strategies in social media marketing while measuring both short-term and long-term ROI.
Short-term ROI, the social-first way
So if traditional marketing takes on a “social too” approach with a narrow view of social media attribution in the short term, what’s the social-first answer to short-term ROI? We’re not here to knock paid performance marketing — quite the opposite. Our performance marketing team drives unparalleled social commerce through targeted ads, playing a pivotal role in driving immediate conversions. We know from experience that paid performance marketing is at its best when wrapped in an organic content strategy.
Learn how community-centric strategies drive engagement and ROI
For example, looking at engagement metrics less through a lens of sales and more as behavioral markers of intent clarifies their importance in a data-driven strategy. Our community management experts explain the value of engagement metrics in a holistic strategy, stressing that for organic efforts, engagement is a conversion:
“When you cause someone to stop scrolling, pay attention, and intentionally take action by liking or commenting on your post, that action communicates intent. It’s an action that can translate to a sale more readily than a user who, for all intents and purposes, has never heard of your brand before.”
- Madison Gaudry-Routeledge, VP of Strategy and Community
It follows that CPM is going to be higher for a brand paying to reach people who are not already expressing interest. Views and follows become meaningful KPIs when viewed as the core metric showing an organic demographic of interested leads, which allows a brand to spend less to access an already-primed audience.
Here’s how that works
Consider the e.l.f. Cosmetics “CEO for a Day” campaign. E.l.f. didn’t just push out paid ads to promote the relaunch of a fan-favorite product: the Mikayla Marriage Material Lip Duo. Rather, they created a record-breaking celebration of creativity and community by leveraging creator content with a key voice in their audience base.
@mikaylanogueira MY FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS as @e.l.f. Cosmetics CEO for the day. The Mikayla Marriage Material lip duo is back on elfcosmetics.com.. RIGHT NOW! 😉 #elfpartner #marriagematerial #elfxmikayla
Hinging on 10 social posts shared across the first 24 hours of the launch, Mikayla’s ultra-sharable organic videos sparked viral engagement and user-generated content, broadening the reach of the campaign. The creator-led nature of the earned content wrapped the paid elements of the campaign in a community-centric celebration that made e.l.f.’s audience feel like they were part of something exciting and exclusive. With paid media supported by that initial organic momentum, e.l.f. Cosmetics sold out 50,000 units in 10 hours and became the #1 TikTok Shop in the US across all categories.
The key takeaway here is simple: organic efforts nurture an audience that is primed to convert, and when these efforts are aligned with paid advertising, they can create a powerful full-funnel strategy. Engagement, such as likes, comments, and follows, is an early indicator of interest. When people engage with your content, they’re more likely to take the next step and convert. But, engagement alone isn’t enough to close the deal. When it comes to social-first ROI and attribution, we have to talk about brand sentiment.
Long-term ROI and social-first impact
While immediate impact matters, focusing overly on short-term ROI — even when it’s done well with organic as well as paid elements — is still not a wholly social-first approach. Viral Nation’s business intelligence experts point to the imbalance of short-term and long-term efforts in many brands’ social media marketing strategies as the greatest opportunity to drive higher social ROI. The emphasis here is on adjusting perspective to view social media holistically:
“If you are only viewing social as a search engine, lower funnel, and only using it to convert, you’re not thinking holistically about the far-reaching power of brand building on social media.”
- Thomas Shih, Senior Director of Business Intelligence
The idea of long-term brand building to drive sustainable ROI is not a new one. Les Binet and Peter Field’s The Long and Short of It: Balancing Short and Long-Term Marketing Strategies is no less impactful today than it was in 2013. In the fast-paced world of social media marketing, it can be tempting to focus solely on short-term gains. However, for truly resonant social commerce, the short-term impact of efforts like organic posts and paid performance must be supported and strengthened by long-term brand-building. Our business intelligence team emphasizes that long-term brand-building efforts will pay back in revenue over a matter of years. Here’s why:
- Brand equity: Over time, a strong brand ethos accumulates value. Just ask yourself why consumers are willing to pay more for a BMW than a Honda. A luxury brand demands luxury prices, and that recognition of identity is built over the long term. Most notably, the value you’ve accumulated is your differentiator, separating you from competitors and keeping your campaigns standing out.
- Loyalty and retention: Long-term brand building fosters emotional connections with your audience. When customers feel genuinely aligned with your brand, their loyalty strengthens — even when competitors try to win them over. This loyalty fuels repeat purchases and word-of-mouth advocacy, creating sustainable growth.
- Market leadership: A well-established brand cements your place in the market, carving out a unique position that gives you a clear competitive edge. Clear positioning better attracts and retains customers, further driving growth and profitability that lasts.
- Staying relevant: Beyond creating distinction, a strong brand identity equips you to adapt to change. As market trends shift and consumer preferences evolve, a solid brand foundation allows for seamless adjustments, ensuring your brand remains relevant, recognizable, and resonant.
Here’s where brand sentiment comes in
We’ve established that effective social-first ROI means looking at your social media presence beyond paid efforts: organic campaigns and behavioral metrics matter, and brand-building efforts craft a narrative that resonates in the long term. Now let’s zoom in on attribution models for long-term brand building.
This is where brand sentiment comes into play. Studies show that 60% of branded TikTok videos are forgettable, with below-average ratings in both emotional response and brand recall. Worse, 24% triggered extreme negative emotions. In other words, there’s a noteworthy gap in effective brand-building efforts across social media. For the majority of brands, a deep opportunity exists to improve brand sentiment with social-first strategies.
Positive sentiment about your brand doesn’t happen overnight — it’s the result of consistent engagement, authentic content, and proactively adding value to conversations your audience cares about, both on and off your own channel. Brands that actively shape their social presence and engage with users are the ones that build strong, lasting relationships. Over time, this trust translates into higher brand sentiment and long-term ROI.
Brand sentiment is often viewed as a nebulous metric, but that doesn’t mean it’s not measurable. Viral Nation has cracked the long-term attribution equation with brand lift studies executed for our clients measuring social-first marketing efforts and their effect on brand sentiment. Beyond this, brands can practice social listening and engage in community conversations to get a read on brand sentiment. The comments in Skim’s holiday campaign with Montana Boyz’ Mark Estes, for example, speak volumes:
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How to quantify a feeling
To measure the impact of long-term social efforts, Viral Nation’s community management team breaks brand sentiment down into its own funnel, analyzing from familiarity all the way down to action. For example, in a campaign to educate a brand’s audience on the practical applications and environmental benefits of a product’s material, we tackled the challenge of measuring perception shift, affinity, and consideration.
Through a creator marketing initiative that connected diverse micro-influencers in relevant communities with a gamified lifestyle spin on environmental education, we measured an above-average increase in positive feelings around using the product. We found that the target audience viewed the product’s materials more favorably compared to others in terms of being the best choice for the environment, having the lowest carbon footprint, and more.
Measuring brand sentiment over the course of one campaign gives you a clear read on the perception of your brand at a point in time. When brand sentiment insights feed back into future strategies and measurement is consistent, it creates a positive feedback loop that drives higher sentiment over time, for increased trust and advocacy, and of course, higher long-term ROI.
Where does your brand land in the short-term/long-term ROI balance?
While attribution is faster and easier with short-term ROI via paid performance marketing, the case studies available for brands who prioritize long-term brand building speak for themselves. Brand building can take years, but there are methods to measure its impact. While paid media can drive immediate results, it’s the long-term brand-building efforts—such as community management and brand sentiment—that create real, sustainable ROI.
If you’re still unsure about how to track and measure the ROI of your social media efforts, consider partnering with a team that specializes in business intelligence and community management. With the right tools and expertise, you can start measuring sentiment, tracking brand health, and driving tangible ROI. Trust the process, invest in long-term strategies, and the results will follow.
